Sunday, January 30, 2011

US New Homes Sales Reveals Weakness


US New home sales data came out this week and it got a lot of people excited. In particular, the hike in the annualised sales to December seemed to suggest better days. For the record, the number went from 280k in November to 329k. An impressive increase.

Unfortunately, on deeper inspection, it is not that good. Much of the increase was due to a large jump in sales in California because purchasers were rushing to meet a tax credit deadline in the State. Looking closer at the numbers for annualised sales...





(100's)
US
US 3 Month Av
US Ex-West 3 Month
Dec
356


Jan
349


Feb
347
351
268
Mar
384
360
274
Apr
414
382
285
May
282
360
272
Jun
310
335
259
Jul
283
292
237
Aug
274
289
234
Sep
317
291
232
Oct
280
290
230
Nov
280
292
232
Dec
329
296
222

source: US Census Bureau, Earnings View


....reveals that the data is not so impressive. Excluding the West region shows that the three month average actually fell. Moreover, even if the West is left in, the three month average is only marginally up.

Inventories are coming down but it looks like the housing recovery still hasn't taken place yet.


Source:

U.S. Census Bureau News

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